Foley Strategic Advisory
Shipping & Logistics
The Maersk Surcharge Is Just the Start
Why shipping costs are structural, not temporary — and 5 actions procurement leaders should take now.
Critical
March 2026 — Ongoing
$200/$400
per TEU / FEU surcharge
40-60%
container rate increase since Feb
+14
days added to transit times
Why This Is Structural
Rerouting Distance
Cape of Good Hope adds 3,000-4,000 nautical miles per voyage. Asia-to-Europe transit has gone from 30 days to 44. Every round trip ties up a ship for two extra weeks — and there are no new ships coming.
Compounding Costs
Fuel, insurance, and port fees are stacking simultaneously. Gulf transit insurance premiums are up 300%+. Bunker fuel consumption rises with every extra mile. These costs don't unwind when headlines fade.
Effective Capacity Reduction
Longer voyages mean fewer round trips per ship per year. The global fleet hasn't grown — but the route network just got 15-20% longer. That's a structural capacity squeeze with no quick fix.
Every Carrier Is Moving
Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC have all followed Maersk with similar surcharges. This isn't one carrier's pricing decision — it's the market repricing around a new reality. Expect 2-3 years of elevated costs minimum.
5 Actions for Procurement Leaders
Not just unit price. Freight, insurance, duties, inventory carrying costs, lead time buffers. Most procurement teams only track FOB price — that number is now dangerously incomplete.
If you're on annual contracts, you're exposed. Push for index-based or quarterly adjustments. Lock in what you can — but build in flexibility for a market that's still moving.
Mexico, Central America, Eastern Europe. The math on nearshoring just changed dramatically. Run the total landed cost comparison again with current freight rates — the answer will surprise you.
Safety stock calculations based on pre-Hormuz lead times are wrong. Recalculate for critical items using current transit times. The cost of carrying extra inventory is less than the cost of a stockout.
If you're 80% with one carrier, you have no leverage. Split volume across 3+ carriers minimum. Concentration risk in logistics is just as dangerous as concentration risk in your supply base.
"Companies that treat this as temporary will get crushed. The math on global shipping just changed."
— John Foley